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We see various versions of measures worldwide to reduce contact between people. But in setting the severity of a measure, it is of vital importance to understand what circumstances are conducive to the virus. Taking the weather/humidity into account will allow for much more targeted policymaking.

The enormous economic and social consequences of this pandemic In 1995 I wrote a book about my expectations of a developing revolution: the internet. This article was written about it by a journalist, 21 years later.  Many of the developments I anticipated became fact. What was my secret? I noticed that others were mainly focused …

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How do we handle the positive effect of a higher specific humidity? The following question must be faced quicker than many people think: How long will we keep up the hard measures aimed at decreasing the chance of infection? Meaning, bringing the R0 (the number of people infected by one single individual) back to (almost) …

How do we handle the positive effect of a higher specific humidity? Lees meer »

What if the spread rate of COVID-19 almost reaches 0? It’s currently estimated that, without any special measures taken to reduce the spread, the COVID-virus has an R0 of 2,2. This means that 1 infected person will infect 2.2 others. Needless to say, if you make sure that an infected person has reduced or no …

What if the spread rate of COVID-19 almost reaches 0? Lees meer »

What will happen to the spread rate of COVID-19 in (sub-)tropical areas? Research from 2013 concerning the seasonal sensitivity of the influenza virus saw a marked shift in patterns between areas above the 25th Latitude toward the Pole (including the southern hemisphere), and the areas between the equator and the 10th Latitude. In the areas …

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It seems likely that COVID-19 will show the same seasonal pattern as the flu. I provide a brief overview of the findings that have led me to this conclusion, including a meta-study of influenza outbreaks, a study that analyzed the COVID-19 outbreaks worldwide as a function of weather, and my own analyses.

An overview of what we currently do and do not know. Topics discussed include seasonal patterns, a comparison with the reproduction factor of influenza, mortality rates, differences in measures between countries and the necessity of strict measures including, perhaps, a full lockdown.

In this article, I draw a comparison between New York, San Francisco, Bergamo and Naples in order to demonstrate that the specific air humidity plays an important part in the reproduction factor of the virus. Subsequent research is urgently needed to adjust the indoor and outdoor policy.

Relevant COVID-19 data per country Based on the data of the EDCD I made calculations per country. I am particularly interested in the figures per inhabitant, in order to discover regional trends. First the table and then the three world maps with the three relevant figures. It is important to realise: Per country there is …

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Why wearing face masks is the only logical conclusion… for now. Today two sources provided new information about how we should handle the coming days’/weeks’ “unfavorable” weather in order to faster stop the virus’ spread. This is an article from the LA Times about the gathering of a gospel choir on March 10th, 100 km …

Why wearing face masks is the only logical conclusion… for now. Lees meer »

Covid-19, the big differences between states in the USA Like in Italy we can see big differences in the spread of the COVID-19 virus between different states in the USA. Looking at the number of deaths per capita, we can see that the province of Rome and Naples has 20 times less deaths than Lombardy …

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We know what increases the spreading speed – micro drops! A number of times already have I experienced the great power of the internet and its users when it comes to complementing your own vision with their specific knowledge. The information I received in the past two days does not only support the proof of …

We know what increases the spreading speed – micro drops! Lees meer »

It’s proven – specific humidity has significant impact on spread COVID-19 In my observation about the relationship between the spread of the COVID-19 virus and the weather (especially specific humidity), I called for further scientific research on this phenomenon. Yesterday, a highly respected virologist sent me the link to this very recent article he wrote …

It’s Proven – specific humidity has significant impact on spread COVID-19 Lees meer »

First, this article demonstrates why influenza isn't prone to superspread events and COVID-19 is. Next, I will explain how we can use controlled experiments to determine what measures work and under what circumstances, in order to formulate a much more effective approach that limits the damage done to the economy and society.

Final proof – Humidity slows or accelerates spread of virus We are currently working with a group of scientists to produce a paper on the findings of our research into the relationship between the weather and the rate of spread of the COVID-19 virus. However, the results are so interesting that I am already giving …

Final proof – Humidity slows or accelerates spread of virus Lees meer »

I have already indicated that there are apparently certain events where someone who is infected without even knowing it, infects a lot of others at once. While the image given so far is that these are “super spreaders”, i.e. persons who, for one reason or another, infect many others, I think that these events are …

That’s how big the impact of super spread events is Lees meer »

We are collectively committing hara-kiri The theme is that there is a complete mismatch between the threat of the virus and the measures taken in many countries. Actually, macroeconomist Lars Juning best describes this with the expression “We are collectively committing hara-kiri”. He wrote a report for the EU in 2006 on the economic impact …

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Through Peil.nl I raised a number of questions in relation to the Corona crisis, including the questions of what to do with the exit strategy, how likely participants feel they are going to get corona and how hard it is for their industry to adjust to social distancing.

The superspread event on March 5th in Kessel The municipality of Peel en Maas is the municipality with the most hospitalizations in the Netherlands. TV newscast EenVandaag devoted a report to it on 19 March. A meeting on 5 March in community center De Poart in Kessel was the superspread event for the outbreak there. …

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Interesting international comparisons about Covid-19 Financial Times has a page with a nice way to read international comparisons regarding the changes in the spread of the virus. It is important to understand what figures they show in those international comparisons. They use the average number of deaths over the last 7 days. As day zero …

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What social geography adds to the containment of COVID-19 As a result of my Dutch TV performance last Saturday, I get two kinds of reactions. There are people who are (very) positive about what I publish and tell. And there are people (often with some kind of anger), that dismiss me for not being a …

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This is how the spread of COVID-19 generally takes place I studied to become a social geographer. My specialty was research & statistics. In 1965 I learned how to program and have since always used computers intensively for my work. In huge crises like the one caused by the COVID-19 outbreak it is of major …

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Covid-19 spreads, there is a provable causal connection! I remember well when in university I was first explained what a mock relationship is. In Denmark there was a strong correlation between the birth rate and the number of storks that had their nests there. The explanation was that there are more storks in the countryside, …

Covid-19 spreads, there is a provable causal connection! Lees meer »

The spread of the virus is already virtually under control Summary In this article I show how the COVID-19 virus spread before 15 March, before we took measures in the Netherlands. The overviews per municipality show, that the speed of the virus spreading increased enormously when a so-called “super spread event” was held. Without superspread-events, …

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Swedish Covid approach costs 30 more deaths per day For everyone in the world who is involved in the search for the right COVID-19 virus strategy, Sweden is super interesting. There they have not taken as hard measures as in many other countries (e.g. The Netherlands). When comparing the developments in the Netherlands and Sweden, …

Swedish Covid approach costs 30 more deaths per day Lees meer »

The government is pointing in the wrong direction In the advice of RIVM and the explanations by specialists in the talk shows, it strikes me how little attention is paid to important new scientific research. That is why I made this short video. No extra words are needed. Volg Maurice de Hond op Twitter | …

The government is pointing in the wrong direction Lees meer »

Meat processing industry, superspreading hot spots It struck me for the first time a month ago: in the US, workers in the meat processing industry went on strike because COVID-19 had broken out among a number of colleagues. That turned out to be only the beginning, as we now see large numbers of infected workers …

Meat processing industry, superspreading hot spots Lees meer »

Aerosols, the crucial missing link This is really the most crucial question in the fight against the spread of the virus. The answer will have a huge impact on developments, not only in the coming months, but also in the years to come. Are aerosols playing an important role in the infection with the virus, …

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As long as the information about aerosols isn't taken seriously, RIVM and the virologists will keep unnecessarily forcing the 1.5-meter social distancing rule onto our society. In addition, a source of contamination is being ignored, which may have dire consequences by the time our schools open up again.

The major outbreaks in Manaus (Brazil) and Guayaquil (Ecuador) are often used to demonstrate that the effect of high humidity I've been pointing at, cannot be true. Unfortunately, that says more about the general state of ignorance about how the virus spreads than it does about my reasoning. This article explains why.